Most furnace companies set their marketing budget by habit: last year's number, plus or minus a little. A better method starts with what one installed furnace is worth to you, works out what you can afford to pay to win it, and then shapes the spending to the weeks when homeowners actually buy. This guide walks through that method with numbers you can replace with your own.
Step 1: find your ceiling per installed furnace
Your ceiling is the most you can pay in marketing for one installed furnace and still be happy with the job.
Work it out like this, using illustrative figures:
| Item | Example |
|---|---|
| Average price of a replacement | $7,000 |
| Gross margin after equipment, labour and permits | $2,500 |
| Share of margin you'll spend to win the job | 25% |
| Ceiling per installed furnace | $625 |
The 25% is a business choice, not a rule. Some owners accept more because a new furnace customer is likely to buy maintenance and future air conditioning; others want to keep more margin. Pick a number and write it down.
Step 2: turn the ceiling into a cost per booked estimate
You don't pay per installed furnace; you pay per click, per lead or per month. So work backwards to the stage you can track early.
If you close 35% of replacement estimates, each booked estimate is worth 35% of your ceiling: $625 × 0.35 ≈ $219. Any channel producing booked replacement estimates for under about $219 is, on these numbers, worth keeping. Above that, it needs fixing or cutting.
Do the same for no-heat calls. If 15% of emergency calls on older furnaces lead to a replacement within the season, each answered emergency call carries some replacement value on top of the repair margin. Including that value usually makes emergency marketing look much better than repair revenue alone suggests.
Step 3: estimate the season's total
Now decide how many extra installed furnaces you're aiming for, and check you can install them.
Say you want 40 more replacements this heating season. At a $625 ceiling, that justifies up to $25,000 in combined marketing costs, including agency fees and ad spend. Then check the plan against reality:
- Crew capacity: can you install 40 more in five months, on top of your current work?
- Estimator capacity: at a 35% close rate, 40 installs means about 115 estimates.
- Cash: marketing is paid before the jobs are invoiced. Can you carry it?
If any answer is no, lower the target. Spending for jobs you can't install is the fastest way to waste a budget.
Step 4: shape spending to the season
Furnace demand doesn't arrive evenly, so the budget shouldn't either. A common shape:
| Period | Share of annual budget | Main work |
|---|---|---|
| Spring–summer | 15–20% | SEO, website, reviews, financing pages |
| September–October | 20% | Tune-up campaigns, replacement campaigns at moderate budget |
| November–January | 45–50% | Full replacement and emergency spend |
| February–March | 10–15% | Follow-up, late-season replacements, wind-down |
These shares are a starting point, not a standard. Regions matter. Statistics Canada's 2023 data shows natural gas heating three in four homes in Alberta and Saskatchewan, so gas-furnace replacement demand there is large and concentrated. In Quebec, where 70% of households heat mainly with electricity, a furnace company's season may lean more on electric furnaces and dual-energy systems. Mild coastal BC tends to have a flatter, longer season than the Prairies. Our areas hub covers each region.
Step 5: keep a reserve for cold snaps
Hold back part of the winter budget, perhaps 10%, for cold snaps. When a deep freeze is forecast, that reserve goes into emergency and replacement ads for the hours you can staff. If the winter is mild, the reserve can go to follow-up campaigns or roll into spring SEO work. The cold-snap playbook explains how to spend it well.
Step 6: measure and adjust weekly in peak season
During the busiest weeks, review four numbers every week:
- Answer rate on calls by hour.
- Cost per booked replacement estimate by channel.
- Close rate on estimates, by source.
- Install calendar fill, how many days ahead you're booked.
When the calendar is full two weeks out, reduce spend. When answer rates fall, cut the hours you can't staff. When cost per booked estimate rises above your limit, find out why before adding budget.
This season's wildcard: the federal heat pump rebate
On 8 October 2026 the federal government announced the National Heat Pump Rebate Program, with rebates for eligible cold-climate air-source heat pumps of up to $10,000 for below-median-income households and $2,000 for other eligible homeowners. As of October 2026 it isn't open; launch is expected in 2027 and the administrator hasn't been named. Confirm details with the program once it opens.
For budgeting, this has two effects. Some homeowners with working but old furnaces may delay replacement, which can soften planned-replacement demand. Emergency replacements won't wait, because nobody waits months without heat. The sensible response is a modest budget for honest comparison content ("replace now or wait?") and close weekly tracking of your replacement close rate.
Where the money goes inside each channel
Once the total is set, split it between fees, ad spend and one-off work. A furnace company with a single town might put most of its budget into map work, reviews and a modest replacement campaign. A company covering several towns usually needs more ad spend, because each town has its own competitors and search volumes. Website work is a one-off cost that should be done in the off-season, so that winter money goes to reaching homeowners rather than building pages.
Write the split down month by month. When a cold snap tempts you to spend more, the written plan shows what you'd be taking money from.
Common budgeting mistakes
- Copying a percentage from a forum. Your margins and market decide your budget.
- Flat monthly spending that underfunds December and wastes money in June.
- Ignoring capacity, so the budget buys jobs the crews can't install.
- Counting leads, not installs. A cheap lead that never becomes a furnace is expensive.
- No reserve, so a cold snap catches you with nothing left to spend.
Next steps
If you'd rather have this built with you, our season planning and job tracking service produces the calendar, triggers and job log described here. The pricing page shows how our fees fit inside the budget you set, and furnace replacement campaigns explains where most of the winter spend goes.
Frequently asked questions
What percentage of revenue should a furnace company spend on marketing?
There is no reliable public benchmark for Canadian furnace companies, and percentages hide big differences in margins and markets. Start from what you can afford to pay per installed furnace, then add up what that implies for the year.
Should marketing spend be the same every month?
No. Furnace demand swings too much. Most of the budget should land in the weeks when replacement and emergency searches peak, with lighter, longer-term work such as SEO in the off-season.
How do we count jobs that start as repairs?
Record the first contact for every job. If a December repair call leads to a January replacement, credit the replacement to the source of the original call. That shows the true value of emergency marketing.
How does the 2027 federal heat pump rebate affect the budget?
As of October 2026 it is announced but not open. Some homeowners may delay planned replacements while they wait, so keep a little budget for honest comparison content and watch your replacement close rate closely.